News : Flooding worry, uncertainty: Wet ground, daily rains make forecasting difficult

Yesterday, the National Weather Service predicted that the Cedar River would crest on Thursday at 17.8 feet. Today, that forecast is just 15.8 feet – two feet lower than yesterday’s prediction.

That kind of uncertainty is to be expected this week, said Benton County Emergency Management Agency (EMA) Director Scott Hansen.

Hansen explains that the National Weather Service (NWS) flood level predictions are based on current river levels (the Cedar in Vinton was at 13.9 feet this morning) as well as the 24-hour rainfall forecast.

The heavy rains expected in the Vinton area and north of Vinton along the Cedar River did not take place overnight, so the NWS revised its forecast dramatically, from 17.8 to 15.8 feet.

Yet, cautions Hansen, an unexpected rain fall of 3-4 inches could drastically increase the river level and flood predictions very quickly.

“The ground is saturated, said Hansen, so any rain that falls quickly flows into rivers,” Hansen explains.

And with rain in the forecast virtually every day this week, Hansen and others will be on flood watch status throughout the weekend.

While some rural roads begin to flood at 15-16 feet, the first street in Vinton to be covered is the 2nd Avenue/Third Street area near the VMEU electrical distribution center. That begins to see water when the river level reaches 17.0 to 17.2 feet, Hansen said.

Click HERE to see the most recent Cedar River prediction from the National Weather Service page; Hansen said those concerned about flooding in their areas should check this web site often, since it is updated once or twice every day.

“We need to be prepared for anything,” Hansen said of the flood situation. Local residents remember that the anniversary of the historic flood of 2008 (24.7 feet) is just two weeks away.

Those wanting information about flood levels and preparation have “plenty of resources” to help them, says Hansen.

Be prepared: Each home should have 3-day supply

Floods, winds and tornadoes are common threats each summer, and Hansen urges area residents to be prepared. Hansen said each household should have a 3-day supply of food and water, as well as a communication plan so they can contact friends, neighbors or relatives for assistance.

“I tell people that they don’t have to run out and spend $600 at one time,” Hansen says. “If you just buy a bit at a time, soon you have a stockpile.”

And since even water and canned food “don’t last forever,” Hansen advises residents to keep their stockpile updated, to use and replace the items they are saving for emergencies.

See the latest checklist at the Ready.gov web site HERE.