Opinion : How the Iowa Caucus became such a big deal with a 3 percent success rate

Every presidential election cycle, I watch unheard-of politicians, and a few whose names we know, come to Iowa, hoping to be the victor (or at least do better than the pundits expected) of the "first in the nation" caucus.

I always wondered, "What's the big deal?" and "Why Iowa?"

More specifically, I wonder: Why does Iowa, with less than 1 percent of the population, have such a big impact?

Blame it on Jimmy Carter.

Few people, in 1976, knew much about Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter, but when Iowans (including me) first saw his Georgia smile and heard about his peanut farming background, the Democrats among us were impressed. So impressed were Iowa Democrats that in 1976, they picked Carter second in the Iowa caucus. (I didn't pick him: I was only 11, and had never heard of a "caucus.")

Who came in first, you ask?

The answer surprised me when I looked it up: "Uncommitted."

Yeah, that's right: The Iowa Caucuses became famous because the guy who came in second to nobody in Iowa went on to become President.

Since 1976, just about every presidential candidate --including many whom most Americans never heard of -- has begun his (and in a few cases, her) presidential campaign in our state.

Before running for President, every Governor, Senator, Congressman and too-rich businessman with dreams of living in the White House has said to his aides, "Iowa? Is that the one with the potatoes, or the one west of Pennsylvania?"

Before Google came along, it took hours for the aide to answer that question.

Sometimes, the aides and their politicians get it wrong. You have heard about Michelle Bachmann's mistaken comments about Iowa. That happens a lot though. In 2000, Lamar Alexander of Tennessee was running in Iowa, and sent a news release about his appearance at the Louisa County Fair, where he planned to bid on a pig. That news release spelled "Louisa" incorrectly -- three different ways. Alexander lost.

And of course, along with the politicians, come the media. I had to laugh in 1996 when I saw the entourage of reporters following Texas Sen. Phil Gramm. One of them, a blond, was wearing on her jacket a bright green sticker that read "O.J. Simpson Trial Press Pass." The trial had been over for months; this journalist was wearing it, I thought, in an apparent attempt to communicate to us Iowans that she is a very important journalist who has covered at least one very big story.

For the next several months, you will see many Republican candidates passing through Iowa (along with occasional visits from President Obama, who in this time of economic woe likes to come to Iowa to remember the fun he had when people only cheered at his rallies). There will be dinners, picnics, coffees, evening gatherings at the home of party activists, and lots and lots of commercials on TV and radio.

Will it matter?

Historically speaking, not really.

Can you, my fellow Iowan, tell me how many people went on to become President after winning the Iowa Caucus? Obama, of course, in 2008. George. W. Bush, in Y2K.

That's all, folks.

Between 1976 and 2000, (with the exception of the incumbent presidents Reagan in 1984 and Clinton in 1996, who ran unopposed), nobody who won the Iowa caucus went on to become president.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan came in second to George H.W. Bush (32 to 30 percent) in Iowa, but went to to the White House. In 1988, Bush finished third in Iowa (behind Bob Dole and Pat Robertson) before his victory in New Hampshire's primary gave him the momentum to defeat Dole. In 1992, Bill Clinton finished third, with only 3 percent of the vote, but that was because Iowans overwhelmingly voted for their favorite son, Tom Harkin (who did not win any other states). Bob Dole won in the GOP caucus in 1996, but lost to Clinton in the general election.

According to the official resutls, there were 82 total candidates on the GOP and Democratic caucus ballots between 1972 and 2008. Of course, there have been many candidates who entered the race but left early because the Ames Straw Poll and other polls indicated that they could not succeed.

So, in your lifetime, probably 100 or more candidates have come to Iowa, hoping that a win here would help them become President. Exactly three of them: Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama have succeeded.

But that 3 percent success rate is high enough to keep them coming back year after year.

And in case you really want to know all of the details, here are the results from the Iowa Caucuses since 1972:

§ 2008- Barack Obama (38%) defeats John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (30%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (0.9%), Chris Dodd (0.02%)

§ 2004- John Kerry (26%) defeats John Edwards (23%), Howard Dean (20%), Dick Gephardt (18%), Dennis Kucinich (3%)

§ 2000- Al Gore (63%) defeats Bill Bradley (35%)

§ 1996- Bill Clinton wins unopposed

§ 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%) defeats Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton* (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)

§ 1988 - Dick Gephardt defeats (31%) Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis* (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)

§ 1984 - Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%), and Jesse Jackson (2%)

§ 1980- Jimmy Carter (59%) defeats Ted Kennedy (31%)

§ 1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%) Jimmy Carter* (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry Jackson (1%)

§ 1972 - Edmund Muskie (36%) George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey* (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry Jackson (1%)

§ 2008- Mike Huckabee (34%) defeats Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (3%), Duncan Hunter (0%)

§ 2004- George W. Bush wins unopposed

§ 2000- George W. Bush ( 40.99%) defeats Steve Forbes (30.50% ), Alan Keyes (14.24%), Gary Bauer (8.53%), and John McCain (4.67%)

§ 1996- Bob Dole (26%) defeats Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Maurice Taylor (1%)

§ 1992- George H. W. Bush wins unopposed.

§ 1988- Bob Dole (37%) defeats Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush* (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)

§ 1984- Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)

§ 1980- George H. W. Bush (32%) Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)

§ 1976- Gerald Ford* defeats Ronald Reagan